News-For-Forex

The dollar recovered

2011-02-12T10:39:00.001-08:00

The U.S. dollar could strengthen markedly on Thursday against the single European currency against the backdrop of a reduction in global interest in risky assets and the newly surfaced fears of debt crisis in the Eurozone. So, the main steam forex market again yesterday dropped below $ 1.36 per euro. Investors are only now noticed that the Portuguese government bond yields are rising again, stability is higher than 7%. Not better things and other securities "peripheral" in Europe. Betting on the Greek 10-year bonds had found more than 11%, Irish debt traded at a yield to maturity on the levels above 9%.

Pressure on risky assets have had, and yesterday the news from Egypt. According to latest information, the current president Hosni Mubarak has no plans to leave office before the September elections. According to many observers, the unwillingness of the Egyptian leadership of the country ahead of time to resign will contribute to further destabilization in the region.

In this case, the dollar strengthened on Thursday, not only against the euro and the currencies' trade bloc, but also against such "safe" assets like the yen and Swiss franc. The reason - positive macroeconomic data. The latest report on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits registered a sharp decline in the number of applications from U.S. citizens. As a result, investors are talking about the emerging positive developments in the U.S. labor market and the possible actions of the Fed's earlier cuts in measures of quantitative easing.

Today, according to our forecasts, the euro will trade within the corridor 1,3460-1,3640 dollar.

Societe Generale expects an increase in the dollar / franc parity level

2011-02-12T10:38:00.000-08:00

According to currency strategists Societe Generale, there are several reasons for selling the Swiss franc. First, the four funding currency in 2010, the Swiss currency is one of the last. Secondly, the fear of debt and financial crisis, euro area peripheral countries are falling. Third, the bank are reminded that all periods of risk aversion are different - with geopolitical tension or crisis associated with emerging markets, the dollar / franc could grow, while at the voltage in the financial system, the Swiss franc, usually takes advantage of demand for safe assets. In addition, analysts say, the Swiss National Bank will probably begin to normalize interest rates after other central banks. And finally, buy the dollar / franc is the perfect strategy to trade in the event of a timely exit from quantitative easing. The Bank's experts expect that the next session of the dollar / franc rises to the level of parity and above. At the moment, the dollar / franc is at around 0.9772.

EUR / USD. Currency promptly corrected after growth in the region of four-month highs ...

2011-02-03T05:34:00.000-08:00

Drawing attention to the 4-hour chart, you will notice that the auction on Wednesday, the bulls did not have enough strength to break the local maximum 1.3860, after which the correction has begun, which continues to this day ...

EUR / USD

Now look at the indicators:

Exchange rate still is above the moving averages with periods of 34, 55, 89 and 144, which are directed upward and points to the continued bullish sentiment, as well as the next support levels are 1.3725, 1.3690, 1.3570 and 1.3400.

MACD histogram is located in the positive zone, but below its signal line, continues to gradually decline, and thereby sends a signal to sell EUR / USD.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone and generates a similar signal as the% K line falls below the% D.

Therefore, as a confirmation of what the forex market in a given currency pair can amplify the downward correctional movement, we can only wait for the breakdown of the support level of 1.3760, which will open the path to levels of 1.3725 and 1.3690.

At the same time, remember that aggressive buyers of EUR / USD may go back to the forex market, if everything will still be broken local maximum of 1.3860.

Traders recall that today at 15:45 MSK. will be published on the ECB's decision to the basic interest rate, and at 16:30 MSK. held monthly press conference the President of the Board of the European Central Bank head Jean Claude Trichet. Both events will have a strong influence on the further developments in this currency pair.

Resistance levels: 1.3800/10, 1.3860, 1.3900/10, 1.3940/50

Current Price: 1.3793

Support levels: 1.3760, 1.3725, 1.3710/00, 1.3670, 1.3650, 1.3610/00

USD / CHF. Exchange rates once again found strong support at 0.9320 ...

2011-02-03T05:32:00.000-08:00

Drawing attention to the 4-hour chart, you will notice that the auction on Wednesday, the exchange rate found strong support at 0.9320, after which the correction has begun, which is still ongoing.

Recall that this level has already been tested in late December and early January this year, but has not been broken ...

USD / CHF

Now look at the indicators:

Exchange rate still lies below the moving averages with periods of 34, 55, 89 and 144, which are directed downward and points to the continued bearish sentiment, as well as the next resistance levels are 0.9415, 0.9450, 0.9515 and 0.9540.

MACD histogram is located in the negative zone, but above its signal line, continues to gradually rise, and thus sends a signal to buy USD / CHF.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone and not currently send a clear signal as the% K line merged with the line% D.

Because, trust only one clear signal is very risky, then as a confirmation that the forex market in a given currency pair again could intensify the upward correctional movement, we need to wait for the breakdown of the resistance level of 0.9440, which will open the path to levels of 0.9475, 0.9500 and 0.9540 / 50.

Resistance levels: 0.9440, 0.9475, 0.9500, 0.9540/50

Current Price: 0.9402

Support levels: 0.9380, 0.9340, 0.9320, 0.9300, 0.9260/50

Euro looks tired before the ECB and payrolls

2011-02-03T05:29:00.000-08:00

Especially noticeable in the medium can be called the continuation of the rally field spreads on bonds, but the euro is not used the occasion not showing growth. Apparently it was in the presence of a pair of bear stories for the euro, as it talks about the possibility of redemption bond fund EFSF or further downgrade the government debt of Ireland from S & P. Both served to hold rates, rather than force to grow profitability. For the euro is looking rather the possibility of profit before risk events today in the form of tomorrow's ECB meeting and peyrollosov.

Irish banks continue to have an outflow of deposits. According to the Telegraph, the latest data from the Irish Central Bank showed that in December continued outflow of deposits. After reduction of 27 billion euros in November, in December it was still -40 billion over the past year the Irish banks were losing deposits to 110 billion euros. Fine Gael opposition party offers to holders of bank bonds to substitute your shoulder affected banks. Please note that the Irish in the service sector PMI, which was published this morning, jumped to 53.9 (from 47.4) and came after unexpectedly strong manufacturing index. So it's not just bad news.

Impact on the market:3

Euro gains on the restriction of peripheral spreads

2011-02-02T07:38:00.000-08:00

Now been observed in some extent the key movements in the debt markets, where the yield on 10-year-old Greek market has dropped below the previous lows of the year. Yield of Spanish bonds with the same maturity and punched at least one year, approaching the region of 5%. Of course, one can not compare Spain and Portugal, but in both papers over the last 2-3 sessions yield dropped by 30 points.

Short-term, once it became apparent that the euro sold off at a maximum, as it was yesterday in early trading in Europe. Ultimately, though remains a decent dynamics in markets away from bonds, partly increase the likelihood of increasing the size of the fund EFSF, supports the single currency.

And here the whole thing. Divergence between the pivotal countries and the periphery in terms of economic indicators are much wider than ever. While employment in Germany is growing, the latest data from Spain showed the sharpest increase since early 2009. While you should always be skeptical of monthly data, similar to the trend observed for 6 months.

Dilemma for the ECB now is that the higher rates this year could increase economic imbalances across the euro zone. While Germany and France are moving towards agreement on a plan more consistent "economic government" (according to FT), the application of these rules and results appear to take years, not months.

Impact on the market:2

USD / CHF. Bears have been stronger and the exchange rate has declined in the region of local minima ...

2011-02-02T07:30:00.000-08:00

Brethren focus on 4-hour chart, you will notice that the auction on Tuesday, consolidation within the price range 0.9400-0.9475 ended breakdown of its lower border, which led to increased bearish sentiment and development of previously identified targets 0.9350 and 0.9320 completed about an hour ago ...

USD / CHF

Now look at the indicators:

Exchange rate still lies below the moving averages with periods of 34, 55, 89 and 144, which are directed downward and points to the continued bearish sentiment, as well as the next resistance levels are 0.9420, 0.9475 and 0.9530/40.

MACD histogram is located in the negative zone and below its signal line, continues to gradually decline, and thereby sends a signal to sell USD / CHF.

Stochastic oscillator is in oversold territory and generates a similar signal as the% K line falls below the% D.

Therefore, as a confirmation of what the forex market in a given currency pair again could increase bearish sentiment, we can only wait for the breakdown of local minimum 0.9320/00, which will open the path to levels of 0.9260 and 0.9210/00.

Resistance levels: 0.9350, 0.9380, 0.9400, 0.9430/40, 0.9475

Current Price: 0.9337

Support levels: 0.9320, 0.9300, 0.9260/50, 0.9210/00, 0.9180

British bad - but Ireland is still worse

2011-01-31T06:47:00.000-08:00

The bottom line is that working the hardest to adapt to difficult times
Suddenly we are all excited inflation. While perhaps not all: the annual inflation rate in the U.S. is only 1.5%, while excluding volatile food prices and energy prices - just 0.8%. Inflation in the euro area is now 2.2%, higher than the target level of the European Central Bank. In Britain, inflation has reached an uncomfortable level of 3.3% (4.7% in terms of the retail price index), forcing the head of the Bank of England to write the Minister of Finance a letter explaining why inflation exceeded the target of 2.0%. Economic activity in the Western world, hardly meets the definition of activity, therefore demand higher wages is almost useless. So why do prices rise? Economists typically argue that there are only two types of inflation: demand inflation and cost inflation. If demand grows, prices rise. If we increase costs, prices are also rising. In the absence of inflation these forces are believed to remain at the required level. However, recent events make us think. U.S. inflation is relatively low, however, recent events in America are consistent with changes in the Eurozone and the UK. The gap between the base and core inflation rose as a consequence of rising prices for food and energy. This, in turn, reflects the growing demand for commodities. Over the last couple of years prices have increased - whether it be gold, base metals, oil or food. Given the lack of a decent economic recovery in the industrialized world, it seems strange.

However, this is a quite simple explanation. China's economy, Hong Kong and Singapore demonstrate the rise amid the global consequences that have led policy of quantitative easing, particularly in the U.S. and the UK. Investors can borrow cheaply in dollars, pounds or euros and reinvest the proceeds in developing economies with better growth prospects. As a consequence, growth in the developing world leads to an increase in commodity prices, reflecting strong demand for infrastructure (which in developing countries is often severely lacking) and the transition from vegetarian food for meat and dairy products (food people livestock products is ineffective). Rising prices commodity may be a sign of success in the developing world, which, however, is a "tax" for the West. In a world of limited resources, a significant increase in the consumption of commodities in developing economies requires its reduction in other countries. In Western countries, prices are rising relative to wages, lowering the purchasing power and suppressing consumer demand. In this sense, the quantitative easing unexpectedly led to opposite results - stimulating growth in the developing world, it has contributed to higher commodity prices, pushing up prices in the West without a corresponding increase in wages. Thus, the situation has deteriorated further. Although this theory explains the general inflation rate in the West, it is not too good works especially when explaining the curious situation in the UK. This is an indication that central banks have restrictions. Monetary policy turned the independence of British dignity. A couple of years ago, they enjoyed the flexibility of the pound, arguing that monetary independence has provided the UK way out of financial crisis. If the financial sector is not consistent with statements made about him, Britain would simply hold the devaluation to stimulate exports, create jobs and to live happily, even in a time when the Eurozone lurching between crises.

A good idea at the time, but now it does not seem so reasonable. Shop Britain's position when it comes to that, had deteriorated, despite the largest in modern history, currency devaluation. It is well known that during the recession of the trade deficit declined, but mostly it was a reflection of hemorrhagic import requirements, rather than a sudden desire to buy British goods abroad. Indeed, despite the anticipated benefits of lowering the pound, the position of British exports was not the best state in which the export sector was Ireland, although Ireland had been trapped in the Eurozone. Nevertheless, the weakening of the pound led to other consequences. Perhaps it has not led to the restoration of the balance of the so-called "real" economy, however, contributed to this process for the "nominal" economy, providing lower wages because of high inflation. Annual wage growth now stands at just over 2%, while the growth rate of consumer price inflation exceeded 3% (almost 5% in terms of the retail price index). Thus, the financial position of the average British worker is gradually deteriorating.

In many respects, this is an unknown form of inflation. We used to think about the wage-price spiral. Now, despite the relatively rapid increase in prices, wages are not rising. Thus, wages declining in real terms. In the UK, the consequences were particularly severe because of the strong weakening national currency, the more rapid compared with other countries raising import prices and creating opportunities for domestic producers to raise prices without fear of being marginalized from the domestic market. Most inflations lead to a redistribution of income in one form or another. In 70-ies. workers who had large mortgages were in pole position (with respect to wage the real cost of debt is reduced), and retirees with their cash savings lost. Today, among the winners of the government - low interest rates reduce the cost of servicing debt and high inflation stimulates the growth of income - and large companies, not limited to credit crunch - higher profits associated with improved pricing power. The workers are the losers. It is true those who have large mortgages, may still be relatively better off through lower mortgage costs as a result of lower interest rates. However, no more bets may be reduced (and so they are at zero level), and inflation does not want to retreat. Compared with the costs, benefits, more and more in the past.

The bottom line is that working the brunt of adapting to hard times. In this sense, the situation in the UK are not so different from the situation in Ireland, where inflation rate is 0.6%, the annual salary reduction - 1.2%, while reducing real disposable income - 1.8%, almost as in the UK. However, Ireland will have to go through difficult, demanding reductions in actual wages, rather than spending them in secret by rising inflation. Taking into account that unemployment in Ireland amounts to 13% compared to 8% in the UK, there is no doubt that the country was in a difficult situation. Again, given the fall in the pound against the euro, it is not surprising: we have to some extent exported them to their economic problems.

Prepared Forexpf.ru Materials The Independent

Dollar falls against euro and yen in trading in Asia

2011-01-26T01:29:00.000-08:00

Dollar falls against euro and yen in trading in Asia amid falling U.S. Treasury yields, because of rumors that the U.S. can reduce its costs in the coming years, after President Obama has called for freezing the federal neoboronnye and discretionary spending. Yield of 10-year U.S. Treasuries fell on Tuesday on the 8.0 basis points to 3.324%. The market's reaction was muted as traders await the results of the meeting of the Operations Committee on the Federal Open Market. The euro rose slightly against the dollar amid growing inflation in the region. Since this year, the list of voting members of the Fed became more of those who set up hard, bond yields could rise following the meeting, but this growth will be limited.

Swiss franc against the euro reduced the third day

2011-01-15T06:19:00.000-08:00

On Wednesday, the Swiss franc fell against the euro, which is the third consecutive day against the backdrop of the efforts of EU and Asian countries to support the troubled state of the region. This led to a reduction in demand for safe-haven currency. On the eve of Japan urged to buy European bonds, joining China in assisting the affected States the EU.
Minister of Finance of Japan Yoshihiko Noda said Tuesday that his country "acceptable" at the end of the month to buy bonds issued by European funds of financial assistance. To this end, Japan uses foreign exchange reserves, which will be used to purchase more than one fifth of the issued bonds, which will be auctioned at the end of January. China has also voiced his desire to take part in Europe's support last week.

According to the results of the auction on Wednesday, Portugal managed to attract 599 million euros by selling 10-year bonds with an average yield of 6.72%, below the 6.81% recorded during the auction on November 10. Portugal also has sold bonds worth 650 million euros maturing in 2014 at 5.40%. According to informed sources, the governments of the EU is considering providing financial assistance to Portugal in the form of redemption of debt, lower interest rates on loans to restrict the scope of the crisis.

The plan, which may include loans of Portugal worth approximately 60 billion euros ($ 78 billion) and the redemption of preferred bonds of Greece, will attempt to contain the crisis, which led to an unprecedented situation in the Eurozone and shaken investor confidence in the stability of the region's economy. EU finance ministers will discuss the elements of the plan next week.

Now look at the graphics. Since July 2008, EUR / CHF is in a downtrend, and since December last year, consolidating his cross the lower boundary, which today is located at 1.2360. Since early January trading range is limited to 1.2400/1.2730 (strong support / resistance levels, respectively). Overcoming 1.2730 could trigger a continuation of the correction to 1.2850 and further - to a stronger level at 1.2950. Session low at 1.2580 represents the nearest support, passage of which would pave the way to 1.2520 and further - to 1.2430 (at least 10 January). Key support remains at 1.2400 area.

Author Helen Zlobin

The Canadian dollar ended the year on positive

2011-01-05T01:51:00.000-08:00

The Canadian dollar finished last year below the parity value against the U.S. dollar, and the rate was trading below the last three days on speculation that the world economy will recover in 2011, which would make the Canadian dollar more attractive. In December, Canada's rose by 2.6% against the U.S. dollar. The maximum growth in the past month showed the Canadian against the pound (+3.4%), but maximum loss was incurred against the South African rand (-4.3%).

In 2010, the Canadian currency has risen by 3.1%, while the Aussie has grown by 11% and the dollar - by 2.7%. The Canadian dollar ended the year in the field of C $ 0.9940, showing at least December 31 to C $ 0.9923. At the end of last week, support the Canadian currency had also published data from the U.S., which showed reduction in the number of appeals for unemployment to its lowest level since July 2008.

So, according to statistics, for the week to December 25, the number of Americans who have applied for government assistance because of unemployment fell by 34.000 to 388.000 against the average forecast of analysts in 415.000. It was a sign that the labor market situation in the U.S. in 2011 will continue to improve. A separate report has witnessed the growth of the index of purchasing managers Chicago to 68.6 pp in December, the highest value since July 1988. In November the figure was 62.5 pp.

New Year's USD / CAD started a continuation of the dynamics end of 2010. From a technical point of view of course remains under downward channel from December 21, which to date is limited to C $ 1.0030 / C $ 0.9890 (strong levels of support / resistance, respectively). A clear break through of C $ 0.9890 will open road to the key support at C $ 0.9800 (lows in May 2008). Further support is represented by the February lows in 2008 at C $ 0.9710. Intermediate resistance is located at C $ 0.9940 (session high).

Interbank Foreign Exchange Market - closing

2010-12-31T01:43:00.000-08:00

On Thursday, December 30 at the Ukrainian interbank market prices for the U.S. currency remained stabilized.

Thus, at Interbank trading in U.S. dollar opened following 7.9620 / 7.9705, prices have risen to 12:00 7.9660 / 7.9745. By the closing trading price levels have fallen 7.9630 / 7.9705.

Ruble market opened quotes - 0.2610 / 14, the spread narrowed to 12:00 0.2611 / 13. By the closing prices fell 0.2605 / 07. In Russia, the dollar-ruble exchange rate grew, while fixing SELT on the results of trading amounted to 30.5290 (0.0990).

Foreign exchange market rates at the currency pair euro-dollar changed in a very narrow range of 1.3220 / 1.3260. Market Euro-hryvnia has opened the following indicative quotes - 10.5425 / 10.5555, by 12:00 the prices have gone up 10.5505 / 10.5675. By the closing trading price indicators for the EUR / UAH fell back to a level of 10.5490 / 10.5645.

Ruble Climbs on Record Oil Prices & Higher Interest Rates

2010-12-28T04:05:00.000-08:00

The Russian ruble jumped today to the highest price in two months, heading to the best monthly performance this year, after the crude oil prices touched the highest level in two years and as Russia’s central bank increased the interest rates.

Bank Rossii, Russia’s central bank, raised the interest rates 25 basis points to 2.75 percent on December 24th. Crude oil climbed today 0.4 percent to $91.34 per barrel in New York, trading near the highest level in two years, on speculation that the US crude oil inventories declined.

USD/RUB declined from 30.316 to 30.255 as of 11:17 GMT today.

If you want to comment on the Russian Ruble’s recent action or have any questions regarding this currency, please, feel free to reply below.

U.S. retailers see profits from record sales

2010-12-28T04:03:00.001-08:00

Holiday sales at U.S. retailers in 2010, the year jumped by 5.5%, which was a record rise in the last 5 years. The reason for this was the increased demand by consumers for clothes and jewelry in stores such as Macy's Inc. and Tiffany & Co.

In the period from November 5 to December 24 have been sold the goods (excluding cars) for $ 584 billion, as reported by SpendingPulse, a group of advisors MasterCard. In the same period last year, growth was only 4,1%. Note that the data also take into account sales through the Internet.

Consumers have demonstrated particularly strong demand for coats and chains of Bloomingdale's, as their confidence in the labor market began to recover. Michael McNamara, vice president of Purchase, said yesterday that similar dynamics marks a positive start the new year.

"Growing consumer confidence pushes them to spend the accumulated funds - said McNamara. - We believe that this trend will continue and will continue its confidence."

S & P 500: Situation and outlook

2010-12-24T03:58:00.001-08:00

U.S. stock market continues its growth. Providing support to the market price increases for raw materials, the positive reports of major corporations, as well as macroeconomic data, which indicate that the world's largest economy continues to recover.
In the last week of December, the growth in the stock market is to reduce the amount. Many market participants are unwilling to take risks in anticipation of the completion of the year. With the reduction of volumes slightly increased the volatility of stock movements.

Many market participants are confident that next year, U.S. growth will accelerate. This provokes new purchases, further inflow of capital on the stock market, and as a consequence, new highs futures S & P, which is currently at the highest level since October 2008.

Nevertheless, this constant growth can not continue. Now there are some technical signs of impending correction.
In particular, it is worth noting the formation of the divergence on the daily chart between price and indicator MACD. Indicator of RSI, in his, all close to the overbought zone. However, given the scale, improvement of data signals can occur in the medium term, I think 1-2 months.
In the short term, most likely, S & P futures will continue to moderately stronger.
Further strengthening of the futures currently constrained by the resistance of 1246.50. (Maximum in December at the moment). Higher the level of 1250.00.

Nearest strong support in the area marked 1,238.00 / 1,233.70 (support line from 8 December, at least 15, 16 and 20 December). Overcoming this level will open road to 1217,80 (38,2% FIBO 1170.75-1246.50).

Eurozone again failed to unite against their financial problems

2010-12-24T03:55:00.000-08:00

The dollar reached a two-week high against the euro and significantly strengthened its positions against a number of other major currencies. The reason was the increase in yield of U.S. Treasury bonds to the seven-month high and growing concerns of investors that the results of the summit of the EU can not guarantee non-proliferation of a sovereign debt crisis in the region.

Strengthening of the euro, followed the announcement of its creation, the summit, a mechanism for limiting the effects of debt crises in the future, proved short-lived, because leaders failed to develop a unified approach to the immediate stabilization of the bond markets, and the newly established mechanism of financial stability will come into force only in 2013 year. According to analytical department TeleTRADE, it should be noted that a permanent mechanism finstabilnosti support, not all EU leaders.

As Prime Minister of Great Britain, David Cameron, in 2013, his country would not participate in the stabilization of the economies of the eurozone, are having problems. Germany, the largest contributor Relief Fund for Greece and Ireland, actively opposed the increase in the amount of the fund.

Failed to provide substantial support for the euro and the growth of business sentiment in Germany to record highs, analysts said TeleTRADE.

Moody's Investors Service on Friday downgraded the credit rating of Ireland immediately into five positions to the level of Baa1, and the previously placed on the revaluation of Spain AA1 rating for possible reduction. Agency refers to the debt problem, which will continue in 2011, as well as the emergence of difficulties with funding.

Thus, given the conservation concern regarding the fiscal problems in the euro area, we can conclude that in the near future the dollar will retain the support and the euro will continue to weaken.

In addition, a positive factor for the U.S. currency could be the adoption by Congress of the proposed U.S. President Barack Obama reduction program for two years income tax the middle class, dividends and capital growth.

This Act may be in the medium term lead to further growth in profitability of state of the U.S. commitment and, consequently, increase the attractiveness of the dollar.

The Japanese stock market in the week, has consolidated its position by strengthening the shares of technology companies and representatives from the financial sector following the recommendations of Nomura Holdings Inc ..

European markets earlier in the week received strong support after being contrary to expectations, China over the weekend did not raise interest rates. As a result, consolidated shares of exporters, manufacturers of automobiles and industrial metals.

Nevertheless, in the middle of the week Moody's message provoked activation of fear of escalation of a sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone, and led to a drop in stock indexes.

U.S. stock market ended the week growth, while Standard & Poor's 500 reached a maximum of two years after the publication of a number of positive economic data and corporate news, which was left in the shadow of fears about problems in Europe.

Strong quarterly reports Oracle Corp. and Research In Motion Ltd. supported the technology sector of the market, and messages on mergers and acquisitions have positively influenced the dynamics of the banking segment.

Last week the hryvnia against the dollar significantly depreciated. If at the beginning of the week the ruble against the dollar stood at 7.9686, then at the end of the week, he reached a point 7.9941. The official rate also grew up with a mark of 7.9531 hryvnia for one dollar to 7.9635.

The official rate of the single currency rose slightly. As a result, it has grown from 10.5331 hryvnia for one euro to 10.5421. With regard to the cash rate, he also grew up. So if on Monday he was 10.5415, at the end of the week - 10.5842.

As for the prospects of currencies this week, the subject of non-interference NBU dollar is unlikely to fall below 7.97. Likely to retest the level of 8.0. The euro may test the mark of 10.4. The upper boundary of 10.75 is unlikely to be overcome

Euro Continues To Weaken Versus Dollar, Yen

2010-12-23T12:08:00.000-08:00

The euro fell further versus the dollar and yen on Thursday, even as a mixed bag of economic data from the US signaled lingering weakness in the world's largest economy.

While the US is hardly experiencing a robust recovery, conditions are grim in most areas of the euro zone, with Germany's strong economy in stark contrast to the performance of its debt-ridden neighbors.

To make matters worse, rising borrowing costs and sever austerity measures make growth on the periphery of the euro zone unlikely in 2011.

Still, the euro's recent weakness has not been particularly pronounced, considering the massive challenges faced by the euro area in the coming year.

The euro slipped to a fresh 3-week low of $1.3060 against the dollar, well off a 4-year low of $1.1875 reached back in June.

The single currency dipped to Y108.45 versus the yen, near a recent 3-month low of 108.33. With the loss, the euro edged closer to a 9-year low of 105.41 set in August.

Choppy dealing left the euro near 0.8450 against the sterling. The pair has seen little direction over the past few weeks, as the UK looks to get its fiscal house in order.

In economic news, new home sales in the U.S. showed a notable increase in the month of November, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Thursday, although sales came in below economist estimates due in part to a downward revision to October sales.

The report showed that new home sales rose 5.5 percent to an annual rate of 290,000 in November from the revised October rate of 275,000.

The Commerce Department said U.S. personal spending increased by 0.4 percent in November after an upwardly revised 0.7 percent increase in the previous month.

Meanwhile, applications for jobless insurance payments fell by only 3,000 to 420,000 in the week ending December 18, according to data released by the Department of Labor Thursday morning.

Dollar Wobbles Ahead Of Christmas Break

2010-12-23T12:03:00.001-08:00

The dollar was mixed in quiet dealing Thursday, holding most of its recent gains versus the euro while coming under pressure against the resurgent yen.

A week's worth of economic data was crammed into the final session before Wall Street's Christmas break, but with many traders away from their desks, activity was subdued in the currency markets.

A largely disappointing batch of news on the economic front kept the dollar from sustaining its strength against the euro and sterling. And with Japan's economic prospects less grim than once feared, the yen has become a fashionable safe haven alternative.

The dollar touched a fresh 3-week high of $1.3054 against the euro, but eased back to $1.3130 by mid-day.

Amid concerns about the rising cost associated with propping up Ireland's banking sector, Ireland's government said on Thursday that it would inject 3.7 billion euros ($4.85 billion) into beleaguered Allied Irish Banks.

The dollar was unable to extend its 3-month peak of $1.5354 versus the sterling, hovering near $1.5425 for most of Thursday's session.

Meanwhile, the dollar dipped to Y82.90 versus the yen, staying near a 15-year low of 80.22.

Looking at today's economic data from the US, new home sales in the U.S. showed a notable increase in the month of November, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Thursday, although sales came in below economist estimates due in part to a downward revision to October sales.

The report showed that new home sales rose 5.5 percent to an annual rate of 290,000 in November from the revised October rate of 275,000.

The Commerce Department said U.S. personal spending increased by 0.4 percent in November after an upwardly revised 0.7 percent increase in the previous month.

Meanwhile, applications for jobless insurance payments fell by only 3,000 to 420,000 in the week ending December 18, according to data released by the Department of Labor Thursday morning.

Swiss Frank – Japanese Yen

2010-12-23T11:40:00.000-08:00

The Swiss Frank – Japanese Yen is beginning to show signs of tiredness over everything related to its bullish trend that had brought it yesterday to a new high around the strong resistance level of 88.00. The pair's failure to breach the resistance level, in combination with the negative deviation developing between the price movement and the MACD indicator, lead us to estimate that the pair is headed south.

A final confirmation for a trend reversal and a new wave of downwards movement will be received only after the pair breaches the bottom of the shuffle pattern it entered during last week, around 86.15. The first support level, expected to stall the negative momentum, should such a thing appear, will be poised around 84.15, while the meaningful support level around 82.15 will serve us as a final goal for a complete exit from the sell position.

Europe's stock exchanges have completed the pre-Christmas trading in different directions on Dec. 23, 2010

2010-12-23T10:49:00.000-08:00

By the close of trading the British FTSE 100 index rose by 0.21% - up to the mark at 5 996.07 points. The German DAX fell by 0,15% - to 7 057.69 points. The French CAC 40 index on the trading results has lost 0,21% and amounted to 3 911.32.

As marks agency Bloomberg, the whole mood on European markets on Thursday in connection with the forthcoming celebration of the Catholic Christmas was quiet. Nevertheless, some concerns about the crisis of sovereign debt in Europe have continued to influence investors.

In particular, investors disappointed by the news from Eastern Europe - on Thursday, the international rating agency Fitch downgraded by one notch several ratings of Hungary. Long-term issuer default rating in foreign currency in Hungary was reduced to «BBB-» to «BBB», issuer default rating of the country's national currency - to «BBB» to «BBB +», and the limiting value of the rating the national debt - from A to "A-". According to the agency's experts, the rating action reflects the deterioration of Hungary against the national budget, as well as high levels of external and domestic debt, which can lead to serious problems in the financial sector in case of negative external influences.

Continues to excite market players and the situation with the debt crisis in Ireland, despite the promised assistance from the EU and the European Foundation for financial stability (EFFS). So, on Tuesday, these pan-European organization pledged the country in the I quarter of 2011 11.7 billion euros in the approved financial assistance to the State from the EU and the IMF.

In addition, the court on Thursday approved a plan to the Irish government to nationalize one of the country's largest banks, Allied Irish Banks, as part of measures to improve the situation in the banking sector.

Did not support the auctions on Thursday, and news from the U.S.. Data on U.S. consumer spending in November and the volume of orders for durable goods in the country was worse than analysts' forecasts.